Louisiana: Kenner Louisiana Newspaper

By Christopher Tidmore, Political Columnist
November 13, 2006

If the national trends in Tuesday's election called for change, the results bode ill for Congressman William Jefferson. For an incumbent to be forced into a runoff is dangerous in the best of times. Earning only 30% of the vote is generally mortal.

Still, Jefferson did win 55% of the African-American vote. This reveals that the U.S. Representative's campaign platform, that "a man is innocent until proven guilty" -and its clear subtext reminiscent of the mayor's race, that 'it's us versus them' - had some impact. Moreover, the Congressman had a strong showing in South Kenner, an area that allies of Karen Carter, including the influential local civil rights leader, Rev. Byron Clay of the AP Clay Bible College, had extensively canvassed for her.

And, Jefferson did survive into a runoff, a result some of his detractors denied could happen.

Otherwise, Karen Carter presents a deadly adversary come December 2nd. Her claims of coalition building appear to have come to pass. Support for the State Rep. stretched across the Congressional district, and considerable backing came from the crossover votes she actively courted, conservative white Democrats and Republicans. Joe Lavigne, who counted on a far better showing than his 13% margin, saw Silk Stocking precincts in his homebase of Downtown opt for Carter.

Bill Jefferson did little better on the West Bank, either in Algiers or in Jeff Parish. While it is possible that Troy Carter's twelve percent showing, mainly from his old base in Algiers, could go to the Congressman, the former Councilman's message of change resonates better with Karen Carter's coalition than Jefferson's base. (Also worth noting is the higher proportion of white voters in Algiers, which anecdotal evidence from the primary would suggest would swing to Carter rather than the incumbent.)

Derrick Shepherd's 18% showing, primarily in districts of his State Senate seats proved the changing demographics of the 2nd District better than any pundit could have suggested. A Congressional seat that was once 77% Orleans Parish now finds itself decided in large part by its now more populated Jefferson Parish precincts.

Ultimately, this could prove Carter's proverbial ace in the hole. A myriad of Jefferson officials revealed privately that while they supported Shepherd in the primary, not only due to his representation of the parish but also due to the power of his cousin and closest supporter, Jeff Councilman Byron Lee, every Jefferson Parish politician to which this newspaper spoke declared that Karen Carter was their clear choice in a runoff.

Despite his comments to the contrary, Congressman Jefferson has paid little attention to the political or district needs of the political class outside of Orleans. Before the storm, such devotion hardly seemed necessary, but thanks to the floodwaters and the desire to maintain a clear African-American majority in the 2nd district, these politicians have grown in importance just as their constituents have.

Karen Carter recognized this from an early point in the race. Courting support, she was careful not to put any of these Jefferson politicians in a difficult position, in other words forcing them to undermine previous commitments to Shepherd. The State Rep. reportedly only asked for backing in the runoff.

According to insiders, the gambit will soon pay off. Sources reveal that Jefferson Parish Council President John Young will be amongst the first to openly being to work for Karen Carter's election in the coming days.

Carter believes, and polling data seems to support her contention, that best method to best Jefferson is to build a coalition similar to the one that Joe Lieberman constructed in Connecticut. Cite her moderation and membership in the centrist Democratic Leadership Council. Emphasizes her Republican as well as Democratic support. Base the campaign, much as Rahm Emmanuel did for national Dems, as an end to corruption.

And privately as well as publicly point out the obvious to insiders. Nancy Pelosi detests Bill Jefferson.

When the incumbent refused to stand down voluntarily from his committee assignment on Ways and Means, he issued a dangerous challenge to the then Minority Leader. By forcing Pelosi to call a caucus of the Democrats, she had to smash Jefferson or not survive as leader. That remains true today.

Corruption aside, if Nancy Pelosi allowed Bill Jefferson to retain his seniority, she would undermine her own power and influence in the caucus. She might not even get elected Speaker. Many moderate Democrats worry that the San Francisco Rep. presents too leftwing an image to the nation. This would devastate her chances.

If Carter can remove in the public consciousness William Jefferson's last justification for re-election, that he brings nearly two decades worth of influence in the U.S. House which the state cannot afford to lose, the incumbent becomes just another embattled in office, easy to defeat, regardless of whether the U.S. Attorney has formally charged him.

Add your comment